The pre-election predictions had been clear: The competition between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris can be determined by the tiniest of margins.
However the closing results of the US presidential election has seemingly defied these forecasts, with former President Donald Trump profitable each the favored vote and the Electoral School comfortably.
So how badly has Harris carried out, and the place did her marketing campaign go fallacious — so fallacious that Trump may find yourself with the most important in style vote margin of victory for any Republican candidate in 36 years?
What was the end result of the US election?
Trump has already gained 295 Electoral School votes whereas Harris stands at 226. The bulk mark is 270.
Though ballots for voting precincts in lots of swing states haven’t been referred to as, together with Michigan, Wisconsin, Philadelphia, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, Trump has already been declared winner in 5 of them, as a result of the lead he enjoys there exceeds the votes nonetheless to be counted.
Nevada and Arizona are the one two states that haven’t but been referred to as, however pollsters now predict Trump ought to win each — which might put Trump’s closing Electoral School depend at 312 votes.
Trump has additionally already gained practically 73 million votes, in comparison with 68 million votes for Harris.
Previous to this election, George W Bush was the final Republican to win the favored vote 20 years in the past. Bush gained 62,040,610 votes and 286 electoral votes compared to Democratic nominee John Kerry, who secured 59,028,444 votes and 251 electoral votes.
The final time a Republican gained the favored vote by a bigger margin than the one Trump at present enjoys was Bush’s father, George HW Bush, in 1988.
Harris seems poised to lose all seven swing states. And the margin of her victory in decidedly “blue” or Democrat-leaning states has additionally shrunk. Within the 2020 US election, Biden was up 16 factors towards Trump in New Jersey, as an example, whereas Harris gained the state by solely 5 factors this time — that’s nearly throughout the margin of error for a lot of pollsters.
She has additionally underperformed in neighbouring New York state, one other deep blue stronghold. With 97 % of votes counted, Harris has gained by 11 proportion factors. In 2020, Biden beat Trump in New York by 23 proportion factors.
So how did Harris’s marketing campaign collapse?
A late begin?
Greater than two years in the past, in 2022, a New York Instances ballot discovered that solely 26 % of Democrats wished their president, Joe Biden, to symbolize the occasion once more within the 2024 race. In different phrases, three out of 4 Democrats had been calling for a brand new chief.
But, following the occasion’s success within the midterm elections that yr, the Democrats determined to again Biden as their candidate for 2024.
It was solely after a disastrous debate efficiency towards Trump in June 2024 that Biden pulled out of the race the next month. Harris had solely 4 months to arrange and run her marketing campaign. Regardless of some requires a major course of to elect the occasion’s new face, most heavyweight Democratic Get together figures — together with former President Barack Obama and spouse Michelle — shortly endorsed Harris.
She was finally nominated with out a major. That meant that Harris was by no means examined this yr in a contest towards different presidential aspirants from her personal occasion — which had a fait accompli thrust upon it.
Combined messaging: Totally different from Biden — or not?
Harris needed to decide up the marketing campaign baton in July from a deeply unpopular president, whose rankings had been hovering within the low 40s. After the Trump-Biden debate that pushed the Democratic Get together to vary its nominee, Trump led Biden 49 % to 43 % in approval rankings, in response to a New York Instances/Siena School ballot.
The vp tried to tell apart her marketing campaign from Biden’s, promising that she was “turning the web page” and that “we’re not going again”. Nevertheless, when pushed in interviews or on TV reveals about Bidenomics — Biden’s financial insurance policies — particularly, she struggled to distinguish herself from the president.
When requested whether or not there may be something she would have carried out otherwise than Biden over the previous 4 years in an interview on The View in October, Harris responded, “There’s not a factor that involves thoughts when it comes to — and I’ve been part of many of the selections which have had affect.”
This, at a time when approval of the financial system is at a low, and inflation is but to return all the way down to pre-COVID-19 ranges.
“There’s not a factor that involves thoughts” grew to become a phrase that the Trump marketing campaign would use in commercials to painting Harris as an extension of Biden’s legacy, with accompanying taglines like “costs nonetheless rising”, and “unlawful crossings surge”.
However Harris additionally misplaced voters amongst some key constituencies that had lengthy backed the Democratic Get together, even in comparison with Biden. And Trump’s skill to shave away voters from Harris whereas bringing them over to his Make America Nice Once more (MAGA) coalition, proved to be a profitable technique.
Misplaced voters: Arab and Muslim Individuals
Harris misplaced floor with Arab American and Muslim voters due to the Biden administration’s full-throated assist for Israel’s brutal battle on Gaza and Lebanon. This culminated within the emergence of the Abandon Harris marketing campaign that was endorsed by Inexperienced Get together candidate Jill Stein.
In accordance with the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the most important Muslim advocacy group within the US, by the point of the election, Stein led with 42 % of the Muslim vote within the US with Harris at 41 % and Trump at 10 %.
On Election Day, this pattern would bear fruit for Trump. Dearborn, Michigan, which has one of many highest concentrations of Arab-Individuals within the US, voted 47 % for Trump, 28 % for Harris, and 22 % for Jill Stein, in response to numbers reported by the town clerk for that district.
Black voters shifting away
Black voters have been the only most devoted voting bloc for the Democratic Get together because the election of Franklin D Roosevelt in 1932.
Expectations for Black assist had been excessive for Harris, being the primary mixed-race candidate of African and Indian American heritage within the election. She was additionally within the operating to turn into the second African American to make it to the White Home.
However she confronted headwinds.
A Gallup ballot final yr confirmed that the proportion of Black adults within the US who think about themselves Democrats had decreased from 77 % in 2020 to 66 %.
Within the present election, Black voters supported Trump at ranges not seen since George W Bush’s election in 2000.
In accordance with exit polls from the Related Press, Trump gained 20 % of the Black vote this time. He gained 13 % of the neighborhood’s vote in 2020 and eight % in 2016.
In Pennsylvania, a vital swing state within the 2024 election, Harris misplaced 3 proportion factors in Black assist in comparison with 2020, with 89 % versus Biden’s 92 %. Trump would achieve 3 factors, from 7 % in 2020 to 10 % this time.
In Wisconsin, the numbers had been much more stark. Harris’s assist amongst Black voters fell by 15 proportion factors — 77 % versus 92 % for Biden. Trump’s voter share soared from 8 % in 2020 to 21 % in 2024.
“Frustrations are being made clear on this rising proportion of Black voters [who are] taking a unique take a look at the Republican Get together typically, and are exploring some curiosities with Trump, regardless of his racial baggage,” mentioned Adolphus Belk, a political science professor at Winthrop College in South Carolina, referring to a string of feedback and actions by Trump which have bee criticised as racist through the years.
What occurred to the Latino vote?
Harris additionally misplaced assist amongst Latino voters. Exit polls revealed a considerable 14 percentage-point enhance in Trump’s assist amongst this demographic in comparison with the earlier presidential election in 2020.
The financial system was the primary concern amongst Latino voters. Juxtapose these issues with many seeing the financial system lagging beneath Biden-Harris, and the vp was all the time going through an uphill battle.
Latino voters, particularly these in older age teams, had been predominantly involved with rising inflation charges, escalating healthcare bills, and the rising price of housing, which took priority over broader points, in response to a latest AP survey.
In the meantime, the Democratic marketing campaign emphasised themes similar to democratic values, reproductive rights, and immigration coverage.
What about ladies voters?
Girls voters, a key a part of the Harris marketing campaign coalition, had been anticipated to indicate heavy assist for Harris on the polls on Election Day. A focused promoting marketing campaign urged conservative ladies to solid their ballots for Harris. Furthermore, polls indicated that Harris maintained a considerable 20-point benefit over Trump on the problem of abortion rights.
Trump has constantly taken credit score for the Supreme Courtroom’s June 2022 verdict overturning Roe v Wade, the 1973 judgment that made abortion a nationwide proper. Three conservative appointments to the court docket by Trump had enabled the 2022 resolution.
Nevertheless, early nationwide exit polls revealed that Harris secured the assist of 54 % of girls voters, falling in need of Biden’s efficiency in 2020 when he garnered 57 % of the feminine vote.
However surveys earlier than the election, and exit polls after the voting, each confirmed that girls within the US rated inflation and different issues concerning the financial system as an important concern earlier than them — rather more than abortion rights.
Harris misplaced the blue wall
The historically Democratic “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin unexpectedly shifted to Republican management within the 2024 US presidential election, paving the way in which for Donald Trump’s conquer Vice President Kamala Harris.
This mirrored Trump’s 2016 marketing campaign technique, when he penetrated the blue wall, slightly than the 2020 election through which Joe Biden efficiently recaptured these essential swing states for the Democratic Get together.
In Michigan, Trump eked out a win with a razor-thin margin of 1.4 proportion factors. Pennsylvania proved barely extra decisive, with Trump profitable by three proportion factors. Wisconsin delivered the closest contest, the place Trump gained by simply over one proportion level.
These aren’t the one swing states Trump gained. Trump seems poised to win all swing states, totalling 93 electoral votes.
- Pennsylvania: 19 electoral votes
- North Carolina: 16 electoral votes
- Georgia: 16 electoral votes
- Michigan: 15 electoral votes
- Arizona: 11 electoral votes
- Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
- Nevada: 6 electoral votes
The blue wall’s collapse made a pathway to victory inconceivable for Harris. With that, the sport was over.