It is no secret that the best way we watch films has modified dramatically in recent times. The COVID-19 pandemic compelled theaters to shut for months on finish in 2020, basically reshaping Hollywood with the business doubling down on streaming. Whereas studios have largely realized that they nonetheless want film theaters and income from the field workplace, it has been a really sluggish climb to return to a semblance of normalcy in that division. Sadly, a brand new report provides a sobering actuality. In brief, we could by no means return to pre-pandemic requirements in relation to ticket gross sales.
PwC’s annual media and leisure outlook report was launched just lately, and, per The Hollywood Reporter, the prospects for the field workplace aren’t nice. The agency expects the business to complete with $9.6 billion domestically in 2025, up from $8.9 billion in 2024. These ranges will rise to $10.1 billion in 2026, $10.3 billion in 2027, $10.6 billion in 2028, and $10.8 billion in 2029. This seems like some huge cash, however these numbers will not contact pre-pandemic highs — not even shut.
The earlier home field workplace file was set in 2018, when ticket gross sales topped $11.8 billion. On the plus facet, PwC estimates that we could lastly attain pre-pandemic ranges once more in 2030. The issue? By then, will probably be as a result of ticket costs are rising, with a much bigger deal with premium codecs like IMAX. General, attendance will nonetheless be down. Bart Spiegel, PwC international leisure and media chief, had this to say about it:
“Sadly, this full restoration is unlikely inside the forecast interval. Nonetheless, we challenge that by the tip of 2029, the business will probably be on the point of a full rebound. In different phrases, 2030 stands out as the 12 months international field workplace revenues return to pre-pandemic ranges.”
What does that quantity to? There have been 777 million admissions in 2023 and 734 million in 2024, a 12 months impacted vastly by the WGA and SAG strikes. 2025 is projected to see 778 million, rising to 823 million by 2029. However that pales compared to the 1.3 billion tickets offered in 2019. That is roughly a 37% drop in general attendance.
Film theaters and Hollywood must adapt to the brand new regular
“It is essential to keep in mind that business revenues are finally pushed by worth instances quantity. On this case, whereas ticket costs are rising, admissions (quantity) aren’t anticipated to return to pre-pandemic ranges,” Spiegel added. “As an alternative, the expansion in international field workplace income is being fueled by greater ticket costs. These ticket worth will increase are pushed by a number of elements, together with enhanced infrastructure and amenities, technological developments, and rising content material prices.”
Globally, the outlook is not any higher. The worldwide field workplace is predicted to hit $33.5 billion this 12 months, in comparison with simply shy of $30 billion final 12 months, topping out at $37.7 billion in 2029. That is nonetheless shy of 2019, which hit a staggering $39.4 billion. Much more sobering? Netflix’s whole income was $37.5 billion in 2024 alone, illustrating the hole between streaming and the field workplace that now exists.
This all quantities to large issues that the business at massive should reckon with. Theaters should make up income, which ends up in greater ticket costs and exhibiting extra adverts earlier than films. Although AMC is now attempting to reverse course on that as a result of adverse response from patrons. Sony Photos chairman Tom Rothman has argued for decrease ticket costs to extend quantity, however that does not appear to be catching on.
Studios, in the meantime, have to determine how you can make films make sense regardless of larger budgets and decreased returns. Films like “Jurassic World Rebirth” can nonetheless be hits, pulling in $828 million, however that is properly beneath the earlier entries within the “Jurassic World” franchise. For now, there aren’t any crystal clear solutions, however Spiegel did supply some hope within the report.
“U.S. business historical past reveals that the sector has skilled challenges many instances earlier than, with every part from the conversion to sound to the anti-trust laws of the Forties, the arrival of TV as a mass medium within the Forties and Nineteen Fifties, and the VHS revolution of the Seventies. In every case, the sector recovered. It’s doing so once more now.”
One can solely hope historical past repeats itself and the business manages to get well on an extended sufficient timeline.