OPINION — “Since January 2024, Russian forces have seized roughly 5,000 sq. kilometers [1,931 square miles] of further Ukrainian territory, lower than one p.c of the nation. In sure areas, comparable to Kharkiv, Russia’s fee of advance is as little as 50 meters [55 yards] per day on common. These incremental features have come at the price of heavy losses. This quarter [April 1, 2025-to-June 30, 2025], Russian casualties within the Russia-Ukraine battle doubtless surpassed a million, together with roughly 250,000 killed and 750,000 wounded, lacking, or captured. Russian fatalities throughout three years of battle towards Ukraine are 15 instances larger than these skilled through the Soviet Union’s decade-long battle in Afghanistan.”
That’s an excerpt from the 120-page Particular Inspector Normal for Operation Atlantic Resolve Quarterly Report to the USA Congress, required by a provision within the fiscal 2024 Nationwide Protection Authorization Act.
Launched publicly August 12, 2025, the report [seventh in the series] summarized U.S. Authorities help to Ukraine and the broader response to Russia’s full-scale invasion, together with help for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF), help for NATO companions, and U.S. army, diplomatic, and humanitarian exercise.
I discovered the report, finished collectively by the acting-Inspectors Normal of the Protection Division (DoD), State Division (DoS) and Company for Worldwide Growth (AID) – which is now a part of DoS, contained fascinating information and analyses about U.S., Ukrainian, Russian and NATO nation actions that I had not learn elsewhere.
For instance, in keeping with the report, “The battle continued to be characterised by exchanges of artillery and UAS (unmanned plane techniques) strikes. Since final quarter, Russia’s artillery hearth fee elevated from roughly 23,000 rounds per day to between 27,000 and 28,000 rounds per day. Russia elevated its expenditure of one-way assault unmanned aerial autos (UAV) in one in every of its precedence areas from 7,000 in April to 10,000 in Might. The DIA (Protection Intelligence Company) stated that, extrapolating from this one space, it’s doable that Russia is expending as much as 72,000 tactical UAVs monthly in roughly 9 predominant operational areas.”
On the entrance traces, the report stated, a “novel Russian tactic is utilizing UAVs to ship grenades full of riot management brokers, comparable to CS gasoline and Chloropicirin [a tear gas]…Russia deploys these UAVs to clear UAF (Ukraine Armed Forces) from entrenched preventing positions and into extra open or susceptible areas. Whereas these chemical brokers are usually not thought-about deadly, Russia makes use of them to form the battlefield and trigger UAF casualties.”
The Cipher Transient brings expert-level context to nationwide and world safety tales. It’s by no means been extra vital to know what’s taking place on this planet. Improve your entry to unique content material by changing into a subscriber.
One other Russian tactic, in keeping with the report, is “a constant enhance in Russia’s jamming of World Navigation Satellite tv for pc Programs alongside its borders, with a notable focus within the Baltic Sea area. This exercise is probably going a part of a broader drive safety measure as Russia fields extra weapon techniques. Nevertheless, it is usually doubtless that the intensification of jamming within the Baltic area is a response to the Baltic states supporting Ukraine. The navigation jamming had a major unfavorable impact on business air and maritime visitors within the area.”
The report additionally shared some fascinating numbers that assist paint an image of simply how a lot this battle is costing Russia’s army. “Since January 2024, Russia has misplaced roughly 1,149 armored preventing autos, 3,098 infantry preventing autos, 300 self-propelled artillery autos, and 1,865 tanks, in keeping with a suppose tank evaluation. Russian losses of those platforms have been considerably increased than Ukraine’s, at ratios various from 5:1 to 2:1.”
As of June, in keeping with the report, “Ukraine had misplaced management of roughly 20 p.c of its total territory. Russian forces recaptured all however a small portion of Russia’s Kursk area [which Ukraine invaded in August 2024] and gained management of a whole bunch of sq. kilometers [100 square kilometers equals 38.6 square miles] throughout Ukraine’s Sumy, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson areas since January, in keeping with the DIA.”
The report described different Ukrainian challenges saying that this quarter, “the UAF had struggled with insufficient recruitment, desertions from the entrance line, refusals to battle, and undertrained personnel, leading to most of its frontline brigades working under fight power…Regardless of these challenges, the Ukrainian authorities continued to reject calls to decrease the conscription age from 25 to 18 as a result of potential long-term demographic results and public opposition. Nevertheless, on July 29, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a legislation rising the utmost age for brand new recruits to 60.”
The experiences states that “Ukraine sought to bolster its ranks by recruiting contract troopers from overseas. In Might, Ukraine opened a brand new recruitment middle and launched a digital promoting marketing campaign focused on recruitment in Latin America.” One outcome, the report stated, “Veterans of Colombia’s drug battle, skilled in guerrilla ways, signify a major contingent of Ukraine’s volunteers. Ukraine has recruited roughly 27,000 troopers monthly, roughly 15,000 under Russia’s recruitment fee. By providing contracts of as much as $3,000 monthly, Ukraine goals to bolster this complete by recruiting a number of thousand contract troopers from overseas.”
The report additionally described the wide selection of U.S. help supplied to the world because the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022.
The Cipher Transient Menace Convention is going on October 19-22 in Sea Island, GA. The world’s main minds on nationwide safety from each the private and non-private sectors might be there. Will you? Apply for a seat on the desk at this time.
For instance, since that date, the report stated, “Congress has appropriated or in any other case made out there $187 billion for OAR and the broader Ukraine response,” out of which “$30 billion remained out there for obligation” as of June 30, 2025.
Of the above talked about $187 billion, some $134 billion was thought-about “safety associated,” and included, the report stated, $45.78 billion appropriated to the DoD to switch U.S. weapons and materiel donated to Ukraine; and $33.5 billion for packages Congress created to assist Ukraine purchase U.S. weaponry and in any other case present for its self-defense.
The biggest quantity, $47.43 billion, was for forward-deployment of U.S. army forces and prepositioned shares in Jap Europe to discourage aggression towards NATO allies. I ought to word right here, the report stated that in this previous quarter, the DoD maintained roughly 81,600 U.S. army and seven,400 civilian personnel within the European Command space of operations. These embrace rotating from the U.S. to Europe, usually for 9 months, two armor brigade fight groups and one infantry brigade fight staff.
The report notes: “Not one of the appropriation payments enacted within the present fiscal 12 months [which ends September 30, 2025]…have provisions appropriating or rescinding appropriated funds particularly for OAR,” which I remind readers are for the army response to the Ukraine battle.
Nevertheless, the report stated that the U.S. pause in Ukraine army help from March 3 to March 11, ordered by Trump within the wake of his confrontational Oval Workplace assembly with Zelensky, “had vital residual results on the supply of safety help, together with Superior Precision Kill Weapon System proximity fuzes and 155mm high-explosive ammunition. The momentary halt in processing new requests led to materiel being held in place whereas awaiting additional U.S. coverage determinations.”
With the Trump administration withdrawing from management of the Ukraine help actions, the report famous that NATO personnel assumed management over logistics and distant upkeep co-located in Jasionka, Poland. As host nation, Poland assumed the lead as soon as finished by the U.S.
The U.S. and its worldwide companions continued to supply assorted coaching to the UAF at Grafenwoehr Coaching Space in Germany, in addition to different places in Europe. This quarter, Grafenwoehr opened a brand new trench system designed to duplicate battlefield situations.
The report additionally stated that “The UAF faces a scarcity of medical doctors, nurses, paramedics, and specialists, particularly in frontline areas, resulting in overwhelmed services and diminished entry to care. The remaining healthcare employees are experiencing vital trauma and burnout, additional exacerbating staffing points.” As well as, “the UAF doesn’t at all times make use of skilled medical personnel in keeping with their specialty, and dentists are sometimes employed as infantry troopers,” in keeping with the report.
State’s Bureau of Political Army Affairs, Workplace of Weapons Elimination and Abatement (PM/WRA) leads the U.S. Authorities’s demining efforts in Ukraine. In the course of the quarter, the report stated, “State PM/WRA supported implementers and Ukrainian authorities operators in clearing 11,200 acres of land in Ukraine, most of which was agricultural, and in destroying 4,556 landmines and objects of unexploded ordnance. The implementers additionally supplied explosive ordnance danger schooling to eight,042 individuals residing in or close to minefields.”
State PM/WRA “additionally supplied 104 units of non-public protecting gear, 151 detectors, and 52 autos to Ukrainian authorities deminers, strengthening their potential to conduct demining operations with out exterior help,” the report stated.
The report additionally supplied some particulars on the impression of the Trump administration ending USAID packages, disclosing that of the 163 Ukraine overseas help packages for which State officers supplied data, 85 have been terminated, 76 continued unchanged, and two have been amended.
One which was continued, in keeping with the report, associated to $45 million of USAID funds contracted out to the Division of Power and Nationwide Nuclear Safety Company for a sequence of packages. One $25 million program was: “Procure, ship, and set up small-scale mills at choose cities close to Ukraine’s nuclear energy crops to make sure dependable energy technology to native essential infrastructure,” in keeping with the report.
After pauses, the funds have been made out there and following the completion of the overseas help assessment, the DoE and the NNSA resumed actions associated to distributed energy technology and passive safety, together with finishing the complete obligation of $45 million.
Nevertheless, in keeping with the report, as of July 1, State assumed duty for administering most overseas help, which concerned roughly $1 billion in lively awards and greater than $3 billion in terminated awards that also require formal closeout. USAID Ukraine reported that almost 80 p.c of the mission’s technical and contract personnel had departed by June 25 in an effort to adjust to the July 1 deadline for his or her separation from service.
“USAID Ukraine reported that 9 American former USAID workers have been being employed by State to handle help packages in Ukraine,” the report stated, including, “State reported that it plans to rent some former USAID overseas service nationals to handle help packages in Ukraine, however this had not but occurred as of the tip of the quarter.” As of mid-June, State had not but formally recognized contracting and grants officers for a lot of USAID packages.
The Inspectors Normal on this report record plans for the present quarter, and amongst them is a State Division IG proposed “Analysis of Division of State Administration of Overseas Help Program from the U.S. Company for Worldwide Growth” which can “describe State’s administration of U.S. Company for Worldwide Growth overseas help packages and related awards transferred to State.”
I stay up for studying that report, if and when it’s launched.
Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Transient’s Digital Channel on YouTube? There isn’t a higher place to get clear views from deeply skilled nationwide safety specialists.
Learn extra expert-driven nationwide safety insights, perspective and evaluation in The Cipher Transient as a result of Nationwide Safety is Everybody’s Enterprise.